The Race To Create The Next Model-T
Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009There’s been a lot of news on the electric car front in the last few weeks, including today’s announcement that Irvine-based Fisker Automotive is the recipient of a $528.7M loan from the Department of Energy to help it bootstrap its production. Other recipients of government money here are Ford, Nissan, and Tesla Motors.
In a way, the electric car industry reminds me of the early origins of the auto itself, defined by the development of the Model-T.
For those students of history, the development of the Model-T by Henry Ford ushered in the new world of assembly line manufacturing — standard parts, efficient operations, and mass production. The fact that Michigan became the center of the U.S. auto industry was directly related to Henry Ford’s success in taking automobiles from something which was expensive, experimental, and which had limited production, into something which nearly anyone could purchase. The success of Ford’s mass production catapulted the Model T into one of the most successful automobiles of all time, and raised Ford above hundreds of wanna-be automobile manufacturers and models (the names of whom I doubt very few remember today).
Similarly, there’s a race today to determine where the next generation of automotive firms will be located, with a strong crop of contendors here in Southern California, but competition in Silicon Valley, and efforts in Detroit from the traditional auto makers; plus competition from the rest of the world. Southern California has Fisker Automotive, CODA Automotive, stealthy V-Vehicle, and Aptera, not to mention a number of firms developing batteries, power trains, and other components for various electric car makers. Northern California’s main — but highly covered prospect — is Tesla Motors.
The question is: who (if anyone) is going to create the next “Model T” — the electric car which brings technology to the masses? Will it be one of the Japanese firms who have the head start right now on hybrid/electric technology (ie, Toyota or Honda); will it be one of the old Detroit automakers; aspiring automakers in China and India; or, will it be one of the new crop of startups here? Success — which I’d define in this case as widespread adoption and purchase of an automotive model, beyond the luxury/specialty market — a modern equivalent of the “Model T”, which triggers widespread adoption from the general market. The success, or failure of companies could well determine if Southern California, Detroit, Louisiana, or Mumbai is the next center of the world’s auto industry.





